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- Centre for Economic Policy Research
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- Dating After 50 For Dummies
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I estimate a demand model and find that low-income individuals and young individuals are more premium sensitive. I find that Individuals losing minimum essential coverage are less likely to pay their initial premium than individuals using the SEP for other qualifying events. Lower income individuals are less likely to pay the initial premium than higher income individuals. My results suggest three reasons for considering more generous premium subsidies during the remainder of the pandemic: 1 individuals losing minimum essential coverage are already using the exchange to replace lost coverage, 2 consumers are premium sensitive, and 3 there are meaningful differences across demographic groups in the probability of paying the first premium, which is necessary for coverage to take effect.
This paper develops a quantitative life cycle model in which economic decisions impact the spread of the COVID and, conversely, the virus affects economic decisions. The calibrated model is used to measure the welfare costs of the pandemic across the age, income, and wealth distribution and to study the effectiveness of various mitigation policies. In the absence of mitigation, young workers engage in too much economic activity relative to the social optimum, leading to higher rates of infection and death in the aggregate.
The paper considers a subsidy-and-tax policy that imposes a tax on consumption and subsidizes reduced work compared to a lockdown policy that caps work hours. Both policies are welfare improving and lead to less infections and deaths. Notably, almost all agents favor the subsidy-and-tax policy, suggesting that there need not be a tradeoff between saving lives and economic welfare. Mass attendance events are a mainstay of economic and social activity.
Such events have public health consequences, facilitating the spreading of disease, with attendant economic consequences. There is uncertainty over the impact such events can have on the spread of disease. We investigate the impact of regular mass outdoor meetings on the spread of a virus by considering football matches in England in February and March and the spread of Covid into April There were league and cup football matches with a combined attendance of 1.
We look at the occurrence and attendance at matches, and how full the stadia were, and how these variables are related to the spread of Covid in April. We evaluate Covid cases, deaths and excess deaths, all as rates of , people in an area.
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We find evidence that mass outdoor events were consistent with more cases and deaths, even after controlling for measurable characteristics of local areas. We find that a football match is consistent with around six additional Covid cases per , people, two additional Covid deaths per , people, and three additional excess deaths per , people. This effect is slightly stronger for the areas of away teams in March, and slightly weaker for matches in February.
These results suggest caution in returning to unrestricted spectator attendance at matches. We caveat our analysis though by noting that stadium access and egress routes can be adapted such that some of the opportunities for the spread of an airborne virus could be mitigated. We recommend that the relevant authorities conduct pilot events before determining to what extent fans can return to mass outdoor events.
Japan's government has taken a number of measures, including declaring a state of emergency, to combat the spread COVID We examine the mechanisms through which the government's policies have led to changes in people's behavior. Using smartphone location data, we construct a daily prefecture-level stay-at-home measure to identify the following two effects: 1 the effect that citizens refrained from going out in line with the government's request, and 2 the effect that government announcements reinforced awareness with regard to the seriousness of the pandemic and people voluntarily refrained from going out.
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Our main findings are as follows. First, the declaration of the state of emergency reduced the number of people leaving their homes by 8. Third, the government's requests are responsible for about one quarter of the decrease in outings in Tokyo, while the remaining three quarters are the result of information updating on the part of citizens through government announcements and the daily release of the number of infections.
Our results suggest that what is necessary to contain the spread of COVID is not strong, legally binding measures but the provision of appropriate information that encourages people to change their behavior.
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We use microsimulation to estimate the distributional consequences of covidinduced lockdown policies in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. We also simulate the effects of most of the expanded social assistance governments have introduced in response to the crisis.
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This has a large offsetting effect in Brazil and Argentina, much less in Colombia. In Mexico, there has been no such expansion. Contrary to prior expectations, we find that the worst effects are not on the poorest, but those roughly in the middle of the ex ante income distribution. In Brazil we find that poverty among the afrodescendants and indigenous populations increases by more than for whites, but the offsetting effects of expanded social assistance also are larger for the former. In Mexico, the crisis induces significantly less poverty among the indigenous population than it does for the nonindigenous one.
In all countries the increase in poverty induced by the lockdown is similar for male- and female-headed households but the offsetting effect of expanded social assistance is greater for female-headed households. Using data collected from one of the most popular ridesharing platforms, we illustrate how mobility has changed after the exit from the Covid induced confinement. We measure the impact of the Covid outbreak on the level of mobility and the price of ridesharing. Finally, we show that the pandemic has exacerbated ethnic discrimination.
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Our results suggest that a decision-maker encouraging the use of ridesharing during the pandemic should account for the impact of the perceived health risks on ridesharing prices and should find ways to ensure fair access. There is a concern among social scientists and policymakers that the COVID crisis might permanently change the nature of work. We study how labor demand in Mexico has been affected during the pandemic by web scraping job ads from a leading job search website.
As in the U. In April there was a change in the composition of labor demand, and wages dropped across the board. By May, however, the wage distribution and the distribution of job ads by occupation returned to their pre-pandemic levels. Overall, there was a slight decline in specific requirements gender and age , no change in required experience, and a temporary increase in demand for low-skilled workers. Contrary to expectations, opportunities for telecommuting diminished during the pandemic. Using a simple Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we find that the variation in the average advertised wage in April is explained more by a higher proportion of low-wage occupations than by a reduction in the wages paid for particular occupations.
In sum, we find no evidence of a significant or permanent change in labor demand during the pandemic in Mexico.
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We use the Current Employment Statistics Survey microdata to calculate employment changes since February by employer size. We find that for employers with employees, the largest component of employment change since February is due to closings in all months either temporary or permanent.
For 10 or more employees by April, the largest component of employment change since February is employment changes within continuing employers, rather than those reporting zero employment or imputed closures from non-respondents in the survey. In percentage terms, the greatest overall employment losses shifted to larger and larger employers each month. Recent years have witnessed a surge in demand from investors who invest with a socially responsible mandate. Based on data on mutual funds, we find that stocks with greater socially conscious investor ownership experience superior returns, lower returns volatility, and better market valuations during the pandemic.
No differences are to be found with respect to gross profitability, operating income, and sales growth as well as expectations about the long-term growth rate of earnings per share. This suggests that socially conscious investors can act as a moderating force by mitigating losses in the stock market in a time of crisis.
In this paper, we provide evidence that the early labor market effects of COVID- 19 have been concentrated on subsets of the workforce already negatively hit by the recent wave of structural change in the occupation and skills of workers. We document that the occupation and education composition of furloughed workers in Denmark is concentrated among individuals with low education or vocational training, as well as specific occupational groups that were on the decline before the crisis hit. Our results strengthen the hypothesis that COVID will accelerate the ongoing structural transitions in the economy.
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The COVID pandemic and associated policy responses triggered a historically large wave of capital reallocation between markets, asset classes, and industries. Using high-frequency country-level data, we examine if and how the number of infections, the stringency of the lockdown, and the fiscal and monetary policy response determined the dynamics of portfolio flows, market-implied sovereign risk, and stock prices. We find that these factors played an important role, particularly for emerging markets.
Our results indicate that domestic infections had an initial negative impact on flows. Cumulatively, however, the effect was positive and reflected increased demand for financing by affected economies. We also find that both lockdown and fiscal measures supported portfolio flows, driven by an increased supply of funds. Bonds, not equities, were the primary driver of portfolio flows, highlighting a pattern of reallocation to safety. Finally, we show that monetary policy loosening in developed markets led to a cumulative decline in flows, as investors searched for higher yield.
This paper casts some light on the impact of regulatory restrictions on the movement of people across international borders, implemented on health and safety grounds following the COVID outbreak, on services trade costs using some illustrative scenarios where all the countries are assumed to close their borders to passengers, but leave freight trade open.
The analysis identifies a large variability in the increase in services-trade costs across sectors and across countries, reflecting the stringency of initial regulations and the relative importance of business travel and labour mobility to international services trade. We analyse weekly panel data on such behaviour for English Upper Tier Local Authorities UTLAs from March to July , paying attention to the influence of poverty, as measured by free school meals provision.
Panel regressions suggest that, although more stringent regulation and slightly lagged local cases of infection increase social distancing, both effects are weaker in UTLAs with higher levels of poverty. The model yields results in keeping with the empirical findings, indicating the desirability of generous measures to furlough workers in low-paid jobs as a complement to the stringency of general regulation.
We use monthly and daily transaction data from Iran, disaggregated by provinces, good and service categories, and retail store segments to gauge the impact of government emergency loans on consumption patterns. We find that emergency loans are positively related with higher consumption of non-durable and semi-durable goods, suggesting that the emergency loans were predominantly used for their intended purpose. The effects were strongest in the first few days and then dissipated over time.
We find effects only for in-store but not online transactions and in poorer rather than richer provinces, suggesting that it is the poorer who reacted more strongly with higher consumption to the emergency loans. This paper documents that the employment effects of financial aid to U. We show that state fiscal relief had a double dividend: not only did it preserve a substantial number of jobs, but it also fostered employment most strongly in the sectors hit hardest by the recession. We exploit differences in the distribution of recessionary job losses across states to draw conclusions for the Covid recession.
Our results suggest that the double dividend of state fiscal relief cannot be taken for granted. The COVID pandemic causes sharp reductions in economic output and sharp increases in government expenditures.